Description: This article reviews the data and methodology used to arrive at this seemingly incredible rate, compares the Li/Jensen results with those of recent industry studies, and suggests areas for further study for both LTCI actuaries and the authors.

Description: For establishing the ongoing adequacy of claim reserves for blocks of long-term care insurance, retro testing is a blunt tool, the results of which are not conclusive. Claim reserve retro tests should be reviewed by claim duration, include the impact of interest consistently, and include updated assumptions that can have an impact on claim termination rates or other factors. The new NAIC LTC Experience Reporting Forms estimated to arrive for reporting year 2008 will help modernize LTCI retro tests, providing additional accuracy and standardization. Actuaries should not wait for these forms, but rather ensure that any claim reserve analysis moves beyond a basic calendar year retro test.

Description: One of the dangers in any sort of modeling, whether for insurance experience or in financial portfolios, is becoming too reliant upon statistics and models, and not keeping reasoned, experienced judgment in sight. This article provides ways to address adverse experience possibilities resulting from misestimation risk.

Description: For policies with and without the resotoration of benefits feature, compares incurred claims and statutory ALR for various benefit periods.

Description: A summary of the background, features, and potential pitfalls of the new LTC Experience Reporting Forms, which will soon be required. The new forms are designed to better inform investors, competitors, and regulators about financial performance, reserve adequacy, and relationship between assumptions and experience. Companies are advised to start preparing for the change to the new forms.